Kentucky gets "Commodored," and the posts of the day

So I suppose you are expecting me to dodge the whole Kentucky-Vanderbilt debacle. Nah. As much as I hate to talk about it, it is what it is. Heaven knows what happened to Kentucky, but one thing is for sure -- Vanderbilt was excellent. Sennsm at Vanderbilt Tailgate was a bit surprised:

Ok. WTF happened last night? I dont think anybody saw that coming in a million years. I hope we can play with that intensity for the rest of the year. UK couldnt do anything right.

Yeah, that's pretty much right. Geaux Tuscaloosa goes into a bit more detail:

It was ugly. I turned it off and went to bed with just under 10:00 left in the game, after Vandy took out all of its starters. Vandy was winning by about 40 at the time. The game ended 93-52. I'm here to tell you it could have been worse. Kentucky had 11 points at halftime, and was losing by 30. The opening minutes of the second half were no better, as Vandy quickly built its lead to 40, and just cruised that point on.

Ugly is right.

Moving on (can you tell I don't want to think about that anymore?) to the best blog posts of the day, the winner today is Jeffrey Macloud at LSU "Tigerbait". Jeffrey looks at the strength of the SEC using the AP poll. He does a nice job of analysis and references his sources. Here is a taste:

In an effort to binge post, here's another longish entry. This was motivated by a comment made by one of my compatriots on TigerForums. Paraphrasing, he said that he thought the SEC was the strongest it had ever been.

This sounded right to me, but I wondered. So I looked into it. Here's what I found.

Go check it out.

The runner(s) up come from Fanhouse, in a tit-for-tat between Brian Cook and Pete Holiday. First, Brian Cook:

If you wandered over to the various recruiting sites on signing day you probably noticed big banners proclaiming Alabama's return to power via the nation's top recruiting class. This is due in large part to the enormous number of recruits that put pen to letter of intent for Nick Saban: 32, a full seven more than the NCAA's yearly limit of 25. Only Miami managed to stretch the boundaries of the rule further, signing 33.

Brian's point is that the "oversigning" of recruits is essentially unethical, and how the NCAA needs to do something about this abuse.

Of course, Pete Holiday is an Alabama fan and had his own response to Brian's accusations. According to Holiday, and contrary to the impression left by Cook, Saban isn't the only and arguably not the worst "violator" of this policy. In fact, Pete cites Brian's own favorite team's coach, Rich Rodriguez:

It's also not unique to the 2008 recruiting year. Clearly Brian didn't like having his team's coach called out, and he went to bat for Coach Rodriguez, defending him against the "snake oil" comment made by Purdue's Joe Tiller. Now he's saying that over-signing is what a real snake oil salesman would do, so let's take a look at Coach Rodriguez's recruiting numbers at WVU. In the six seasons from 2002-2007, Rodriguez signed fewer than 25 only twice (2004 and 2006), and on two occasions signed 33 (2002 and 2005). He signed 25 and 28 in 2003 and 2007 respectively. So, in 6 years of recruiting, Rodriguez sold snake oil (to use Cook's metaphor) half of the time.

Ouch. I think this round goes to Holiday.

Best blog posts of the day in the SEC

The post of the day was this outstanding analysis by Saurian Sagacity. Mergz blogged about an analysis he has done on 111 D-IA football teams' recruiting efforts, basing his talent estimates on Rivals.com ratings over the last four years.

This is quite an impressive undertaking. Here is a taste:

It does show however those schools that have been most successful over the past 4 years in attracting the big names – the talent every school wanted. Thus in that way it shows where the most desired recruits have chosen to play their college ball in the past 4 years.

It also shows, if the near past is any indication, the limited pool of possible schools from which a mythical national champion will be named as in the past 4 years, the eventual MNC was a name somewhere in this top ten list.

It's amazing and somewhat frustrating to those of us who cheer for schools not in the top ten, or even top 25. The only consolation I could find for the Kentucky Wildcats is that they are about mid-pack, and given our limited football tradition, I don't expect that to change radically in the next decade or so.

I have always wanted to do an analysis like this, and now I must think of something else to write about.

Runner up for today is this post by OutsideTheSidelines at Roll Bama Roll looking at the University of Alabama's domination of it's home-state recruits, and the substantial failure of Auburn to make inroads into said domination. This is an interesting, complex (and quite lengthy) read detailing the failure of the Auburn program to recruit well at home, even among recruits that were Auburn fans growing up. Here is a taste:

The only real success that Auburn had in recruiting this year was with former commitments to previous classes, and they did not even have complete success in that area. Raven Gray was a commitment to the 2006 class, and he has enrolled, admittedly a very big signing. Jermaine Johnson was a good addition, but he was an academic casualty from the 2007 class, and may not qualify this year either. Enrique Davis would have been a huge commitment, but he ended up going to Ole Miss after Auburn changed directions with the offensive coordinator.

I would love to hear an Auburn response to RBR's post, not so much because RBR is indicting Tuberville for recruiting malpractice -- they are 'Bama fans, for heaven's sake, what would you expect? -- but more because their larger point seems to be that Auburn is doomed to second-class status in the state very soon even though they have been dominating Alabama. The big question that I have is about this assertion:

Saban is as at least as good of a coach as Tuberville, and likely better, and at the current rate the talent level that Alabama will have will dwarf that of the Auburn roster in the very near future.

So what say you, Auburn fans? Has Tuberville's lack of recruiting doomed you? Is Bama about to dominate your future? Is Saban a better coach?

We will see, I guess.

Bring on the cupcakes

Schedules, schedules. This is the biggest complaint about football teams every year. Every team's partisans makes the case that it's team is better, regardless of who they play. But as reported by Charles Rich of Fanhouse a while back, the cupcakery is becoming not just a nasty trend, but a strategic plan. What I think we are seeing is coaches and athletic departments noticing that despite Hawai'i's ludicrously weak schedule, anyone who can manage an undefeated or one-loss record has a chance at a BCS bowl and the big bucks that go along with it.

We have already seen this tendency even among the elite of the most topheavy conferences like the Big 10. Ohio State had either the 53rd or 54th toughest schedule in the land, depending on who's numbers you use, while Hawai'i clocked in at either 112th or 132nd. Kansas clocked in at either 74th or 80th. All these teams wound up in BCS bowls (OSU in the BCS championship). What is the lesson here?

True, LSU was a 2-loss team and wound up in the BCS championship, so we can't say that schedule strength isn't a factor -- it clearly is. But the lesson here appears to be that unless you really are the best football team in the land, you'd be better off to schedule like Hawai'i and Kansas than LSU. Having the toughest schedule in the land didn't really help Ole Miss or UCLA.

Quinton McDawg of Georgia Sports Blog suggests that teams aren't holding up their end in scheduling, and proposes a solution:

Many teams have done their part simply because they have a rival they hate. Florida has Florida State. Florida State has Miami. Georgia has Georgia Tech. South Carolina has Clemson. Meanwhile, teams like Texas, LSU, and Penn State can pick and choose when they want to play these games and when they want to sit out a year. (By the way, I'm not picking on those teams because they typically do a decent job of nonconference scheduling, but they don't have a team out of conference that they have to play. They have a choice.) It seems unfair to have one power team with the option to play a big nonconference game while others do so as a matter of course.

I would respectfully suggest to Quinton that this is not by accident, but by design. These days, teams are looking harder for I-AA opponents than they are BCS opponents. Could the NCAA enforce a scheme where all BCS teams were required to schedule at least one BCS out-of-conference opponent? I don't think Duke could handle the load, they'd be getting calls from every team in the nation.

The tendency these days seems to be "schedule easy, go to a bowl." Let's face it, no matter how much derision weak schedules draw from bloggers like Quinton and I, the bottom line is, going to a bowl means the big, sweet dollars and exposure for recruiting. Given the choice between having a few journalists and bloggers laugh at your schedule and a visit to the Orange Bowl, I think most coaches and AD's would say "I'll take the Orange Blowl, keep your praise."

Until there is a true and enforceable penalty for scheduling pastries, this problem is bound to get worse before it gets better.

Rumors of my demise are exaggerated, but understandable

Has this blog died? No.

Unfortunately, I have been in the throes of a very difficult time. I am starting a second business, and it has simply overwhelmed me despite my best intentions.

Those of you who had been reading me up until the Holidays when my posting frequency went all to hell, hang in there. I will be back very soon, hopefully better than ever. I am trying to find a way to better integrate my blogging into my busy day, and I think I may have found a way.

In addition to finding a way to get my blog-stuff together, I have decided to simply dedicate this blog mostly to football. I have tried without much success to integrate basketball coverage also, but the pace of the season is a bit too quick for me to cover the entire SEC with any sort of coherence. I will blog about basketball, but more from a macro perspective over the entire conference than particular teams. Also, I have found that the SEC bloggers with the exception of UK, Vanderbilt and Florida generally don't pay that much attention to basketball, at least from a blogging standpoint. This is a football conference, and even a UK fan like me can see that. Why fight it? When in Rome ...

So for those of you who were wondering what had happened, have faith -- Best of the SEC Blogs will be back stronger than ever very shortly. This is just the kind of thing that seems to always happen to bloggers when real life encroaches, but I am quite dedicated to this effort and will not give it up. So hang with me, I am almost to the point to where I can resume my passion. I'm sorry for the unavoidable interruption, and I expect to be back up to speed beginning this week.

Thanks to all for reading!

Arkansas kicks Florida to the curb. Vols handle Dawgs.

I said just below that the Gates were not as good as their shiny new #20 ranking, but I do believe that they are much better than they showed in the 19-point drubbing they just took in Fayetteville. I predicted and Arkansas victory, but I most surely didn't expect a blowout, and the final score does not even come close to reflecting the absolute domination the Razorbacks visited upon the hapless Gators.

GatorPilot at Orange and Blue Hue has this:

When the shots don’t drop, this team will lose. When young teams get behind, things can occasionally snowball. That is what happened for this group today. Arkansas starts three seniors and have lights-out sophomore guard in Patrick Beverly. They showed why they were a pre-season SEC contender and they were in top form today. With the two-time defending national champs in the building, the crowd was loud and wanted blood.

I think he is exactly right. The Gators just threw in a clunker this game, much like Vanderbilt did in the O-Dome last weekend. They are young and tender, and the tough, grizzled old Razorbacks just took them to the woodshed. Florida will have a few games like that one this year, and they really must improve their defensive intensity.

Mlmintampa at Alligator Army sees it this way:

I think it's significant to mention this today because while Arkansas is not back at the level of "40 Minutes Of Hell", their defense is good enough, with a home crowd, to stop UF's offense. Is Florida better than the Hogs? Maybe. Records say yes but Arkansas has an RPI of 41 with a SOS of 61. The Gators are 43 and a SOS of 150. We again are having the same conversation we had before the Kentucky game; who is better? A tested team or a talented team?

There is really no knowing the answer to his question, but a lot can be said for experience. Talent is important, but you have to suffer a few depredations at the hands of SEC foes before you can really toughen up enough to be a major force in this league. Florida probably needed this lesson, and may be better for it. Eventually.

So far, nothing really out there from the Razorback faithful. I'll try to catch that up later.

Moving on to the Tennessee vs. Mississippi State game, I called this one much more correctly scorewise. I didn't see the game like I did the previous one. However, a perusal of the statistics provides some insights:

• Turnovers -- Tennessee forced the bulldogs into almost 24% turnovers. Unlike most teams who don't always hurt you off turnovers, the Volunteers almost always do. Here is a classic example -- MSU scored 8 points off 13 UT turnovers. The Vols scored 18 points off 16 MSU turnovers. The ten point differential was more than enough to win the game for the Vols.
• Three point shooting -- Tennessee put up 63 3-point shots, which effectively nullified MSU's great shot blocking. Even so, MSU blocked 10 shots, but that wasn't enough.
• Free throw shooting -- In the end, when MSU came back by getting open looks in the half court and knocking down shots, they couldn't finish because they had trouble making free throws. MSU shot a dismal 59% from the line.

Not much so far from either team's bloggers (basketball just doesn't quite draw the immediate reaction that football does in the SEC), but I will update this post when we do have reaction.

Groundhog day: The big games in the SEC

What are the really big games in the SEC this weekend? Let's see:

• Mississippi State hosting #7 Tennessee
  This game is significant for both teams. Tennessee has won two in a row after dropping one on the road at Kentucky, and the serious roll that MSU has been on through the SEC schedule was derailed slightly at Arkansas earlier this week. MSU needs a win against a ranked foe to propel them into the top 25. Conversely, A second loss in four games would hurt the Volunteer's quest for a 1 or two seed in the NCAA's.
  
  Tennessee will try to get the pace into the 72+ possession range, and if this happens, MSU is in trouble. MSU also tends to turn the ball over a lot. MSU can win by keeping the tempo down -- Tennessee is not a good half-court team, and MSU is 5th in the nation in defensive points/possession.
  
  My Pick: Tennessee wins a squeaker, 79-75
  
  Blog Commentary:
  
  
• Mississippi State: Alrliss, Mississippi State Basketball:
  

  This game could make or break all the sucess we had in January. Win were back in the top two in the SEC, lose and were back fighting to keep the west lead. It could go either way, I hope the team that played UM comed out.

• Tennessee: Tennessee Volunteers v. Mississippi State Bulldogs: stats comparison
  
  
• #20 Florida at Arkansas
  
  The Gators are on a three-game roll, and last week ran a feckless Vanderbilt team out of the O-Dome. As a consequence, they jumped up to #20 in the polls, but trust me when I say that these Gators are not the 20th best team in the nation just yet, especially as unproven as they are with an RPI of 43 and a #150 strength of schedule (compare to the Razorbacks #41 and #61). This is a matchup between two very even teams with different strengths and weaknesses.
  
  Arkansas must handle the Florida pick and roll, and nobody is more capable than former UF assistant, John Pelphrey. Keeping the ball out of Nick Calthes' hands is critical to Arkansas' success, because Calathes has proven that he can kill teams all by himself if you let him touch the ball where he wants to. Arkansas has the edge in athleticism, but they must avoid falling into the wide-open running game that Pelphrey enjoys. Florida is simply better at it, and their biggest weakness is their half-court defense. If Arkansas can force Florida into the half court, the Razorbacks' athleticism will assert itself.
  
  My pick: Arkansas takes down the Gators in a close game, 75-73.
  
  Blog commentary:
  
  
• Gators: GatorPilot, Orange and Blue Hue:
  

  O&B Hue’s Keys to Victory:

  • - Get a true inside out attack going with Speights.
  • - Play Billyball. Wear them out so we can win the game in the final 5:00.
  • - Use the press.
  • - Make the extra pass and keep searching for the open look.
  • - Get points in transition.
  • - Make the shots.

• Razorbacks: HogBlogger:
  

  So what’s my winning formula for these guys?

  • Play very intense defense…including using a strong press often. I think the use of the Wooden-era, UCLA-type ‘token’ press has been the root of many of the lazy habits shown by this team.
  • Pass the ball on offense — don’t dribble it unless for a specific purpose. Quick ball movement is the key that will allow these guys to play better on offense.
  • Emphasize a controlled fast break with secondary options — no long passes.
  • Use ball rotation and pick and roll to get the ball into the paint.
  • Ride Sonny Weems early and often. Post him up…get him the ball in scoring positions…put this team on his back.
  • Play inside-out with Weems and Beverley.
  • Make the post players kick the ball out to the shooters (this means you Charles Thomas — quit getting your shot blocked).

The SEC: Up is down, and Vandy is really down

Who is getting it done in the SEC in basketball this year? There are a few surprises, a few disappointments, and a few real stinkers.

First, the standings:

Overall Standings:
#	Team	Conference			Overall				Comments
		W	L	Pct	W	L	Pct
East-1	Tennessee	5	1	0.833	18	2	0.9		No surprise here. They are the odds-on favorite
East-1	Florida	5	1	0.833	18	3	0.857		Gators expected to be good, but not this good. Favorable early schedule so far, though.
East-3	Kentucky	3	2	0.6	9	9	0.5		Maybe about right, but their overall record stinks.
East-4	Georgia	2	3	0.4	11	7	0.611		About to get worse, most likely.
East-5	Vanderbilt	2	4	0.333	17	4	0.81		What a surprise, but their schedule does get easier.
East-5	South Carolina	2	4	0.333	10	10	0.5		About right. Could move up.
West-1	Mississippi State	5	1	0.833	14	6	0.7		Significantly better than expected. The remainder is a bit tougher, but not that much. Can win the West
West-2	Arkansas	4	2	0.667	15	5	0.75		About right, but beating MSU has them on the move up.
West-3	Mississippi	3	3	0.5	16	3	0.842		Surprised early, but having road trouble. Still have to go to Arkansas, Kentucky, and Alabama.
West-4	Auburn	2	4	0.333	12	7	0.632		Maybe better than expected, but likely to get worse.
West-5	Alabama	1	5	0.167	12	9	0.571		WTF? Loss to Georgia on the road. They still have to play the tough road games.
West-5	LSU	1	5	0.167	8	12	0.4		I'm not sure I expected them to be this bad.

Right now, The SEC has 4 teams in the AP top 25 with one on the verge, and 5 in the coach's poll. The SEC currently ranks 5th in the RPI just below the Big East. The ACC is on top of that measurement. As of right now, you would have to figure that the SEC will get 5 teams into the tournament, although six is a real possibility if things don't change too much at the top.

Up until Wednesday, the Mississippi State Bulldogs were looking very strong, but that stopped abruptly at Bud Walton Arena on Wednesday. Joswalt at RazorBlog has the details:

Jarvis Varnado can't block shots while he's sitting on the bench.

He also won't block them if he's under the basket and the other team is shooting 3-pointers, and Arkansas made more than enough perimeter shots for a 78-58 win over Varnado and Mississippi State (No. 25 ESPN/USA Today) on Wednesday night.

Vanado has been a holy terror this year, leading the nation in blocked shots. But if you stay away from him or keep him on the bench, he can't help, and the Razorbacks defeated a rising MSU team by 20 points. Arliss at Mississippi State Basketball is a man of few words about this one:

That was ugly! Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. I'm glad that one was over. It makes me sick to talk of it anymore. Lets move on and rebound against the Vols on Saturday. Go Dawgs!!!

Sometimes, it's better to forget the bad ones and just look forward. MSU has been tough this year, and they get to find out just how tough against the Vols in the Hump this weekend. A quick look at the Bulldogs' turnover statistics (15.2/game) against a team that is better than anyone in the league at prying the ball away doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence in the Dawgs' chances. Not only that, Chris Lofton is on something of a tear lately, and as joswalt said above, Varnado can't block three pointers.

But the Dawgs have the 5th best defensive points/possession statistic in the entire USA, and are holding teams to 31% 3-point shooting (well, except for Arkansas). But the Vols get a lot of their offense from turning people over in the backcourt and getting layups. If that happens, MSU is in deep doo-doo.

Vanderbilt is surely tanking at the moment. They lost ugly Wednesday to Ole Miss, and are the Commodores worried? Well, Bobby O'Shea at Vanderbilt Sports Line says that Vandy fans may have reached a good time to ... panic!

I know it's hard to tell over the radio, but something about the way this team is playing leads me to believe we are either lazy or dumb. It's possible it could be both. Still, I am now giving VSL Nation permission to panic.

A perusal of the stats finds much more than rebounding as an issue. Vandy's offensive efficiency was an incredibly dismal 89.2, and their effective FG% was only 42.8%! Butt-ugly, that is the term for Vandy's offense, and without their offense, they are way vulnerable. Shan Foster, who was shooting a remarkable 50% from 3 as little as two weeks ago, has gone 9/35 in the last 3 games for a whopping 28%. Won't get it done. No way. Andrew Ogilvy, who was dominant in the paint up until the Kentucky game, has gone from a 65+% shooter to 37% from the floor the last 4 games. The object of the game is still to put the ball in the basket, guys.

Parish Alford asks, was it good D or bad O:

Good D or Bad O: A little of both I think. I saw Ole Miss work hard at contesting shots, but I also saw Vanderbilt get back, get feet set and get some good looks that were just missed.
On the whole I think shots were contested better. Even a few 3s the Commodores hit were made over defenders charging out and hands extended.

Having not seen the game, I can't speak to his point authoritatively, but I can say this -- when we look at the stats over the last 4 games for Vandy's offense, I think there is a much stronger argument for bad O than good D. No knock on Ole Miss, but Vandy has been cranking out some stinkers lately. But then again, you don't get to 89% OE without some help.